Why school closures affect home values, and why they're happening nationally

More than 5,000 public schools closed across the U.S. between 2017 and 2022, according to the National Center for Education Statistics, and the pace hasn't reversed since. A recent Realtor.com report found more than 1,000 additional school closures last year alone, and pointed to nearby home values as one of the areas most directly affected. Research compiled by Axios adds that beyond the well-documented academic disruption, closures can also raise local crime rates and weaken the social fabric of a neighborhood, since a shuttered school often leaves behind a vacant building with no other institution to fill that community role.

The underlying driver is demographic, not a temporary funding gap. Declining birth rates mean fewer children entering the K-12 system nationally, and pandemic-era federal relief funds that let many districts postpone hard decisions are now expiring, forcing budget realities that enrollment declines had already been building toward for years.

The Oakland County numbers: six districts to watch

Oakland County School Enrollment: The Numbers Behind the Trend | Tom Gilliam RE/MAX Classic

According to an analysis published by Oakland County Times, using enrollment data from the Michigan Center for Educational Performance and Information (CEPI), 21 of Oakland County's 28 traditional K-12 districts lost enrollment between the 2014-15 and 2024-25 school years. The declines ranged from 1.8% in Rochester to a striking 37.3% in Southfield, the steepest drop in the county.

Six districts lost more than 1,000 students each over that decade: Farmington, Walled Lake, Oak Park, Waterford, Huron Valley, and Southfield. These districts cluster in the county's older, more established population centers rather than being scattered randomly, a pattern that mirrors what national researchers have found elsewhere. Meanwhile, districts in outer suburbs including Oxford, Avondale, Clarkston, and South Lyon actually gained students over the same period, reflecting where new family growth in the county is concentrated.

Statewide, Michigan has lost more than 123,000 K-12 students over the past decade, an 8.2% decline, while enrollment in charter schools and homeschooling has grown modestly by comparison.

Oakland County's own public charter schools have added 718 students, a 6.4% increase, over the same period. They now educate about 12,000 students countywide against roughly 155,000 in traditional public districts, with another 3,000 attending the Michigan Virtual Academy. That shift matters for interpreting the numbers: some of the enrollment decline in traditional districts reflects families moving to alternatives rather than leaving the county entirely.

The losses aren't evenly spread across grade levels either. Every grade level except Kindergarten, which saw a small gain, lost students over the decade, with the steepest drops concentrated in grades 9 and 10. Because the largest losses have been building up in the elementary years, those declines are still working their way into middle and high school enrollment counts, meaning the numbers at the high school level are likely to keep falling for several more years even if elementary enrollment stabilizes today.

Some Oakland County districts are now considering a proposed 1.5-mill countywide school funding tax to help offset the revenue impact of these declines, similar to taxes already in place in Wayne and Macomb counties. If it passes, that additional funding could ease some of the budget pressure driving consolidation conversations elsewhere, though it wouldn't reverse the underlying enrollment trend itself.

Tom's Honest Take

I've watched Farmington's enrollment numbers for years, since it's the district I work in most, and this data doesn't surprise me. What surprises people is how slowly this plays out. A district doesn't go from healthy enrollment to a closure announcement in one year — it's a decade-long slide that finally forces a board's hand, and by then the surrounding real estate market has usually already adjusted.

My honest read: none of these six districts are in crisis mode today, and Farmington in particular remains a strong, desirable district despite the enrollment numbers. But if you're buying with a 10-year hold in mind, or you're a seller in one of these districts wondering why a comparable home in Oxford or Clarkston seems to be appreciating faster, this data is part of the honest answer.

— Tom Gilliam

Buying or selling in one of these districts?

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A nearby example: Detroit is already making these decisions

Oakland County hasn't announced a building closure tied to this enrollment trend, but Detroit Public Schools Community District, just south of the county line, already has. According to reporting on the district's consolidation plans, Thurgood Marshall Elementary is confirmed to close at the end of the 2026 school year, and five additional buildings are on an active watch list for the same reasons driving Oakland County's numbers: too few students enrolled relative to the cost of operating the building.

Enrollment Trends Are Reshaping School Buildings Across Michigan | Tom Gilliam RE/MAX Classic

This matters for Oakland County homeowners and buyers because it's a preview, not a separate story. The demographic forces behind Detroit's decisions — declining birth rates, the end of pandemic-era federal relief funding, and a shrinking school-age population — are the same forces showing up in Farmington, Southfield, and the other five Oakland County districts with significant losses. Detroit is simply further along the same curve.

What buyers and sellers in these districts should actually do

If you're buying in Farmington, Walled Lake, Oak Park, Waterford, Huron Valley, or Southfield, don't treat the enrollment data as a reason to avoid the area — treat it as one more input into your hold-period planning. Ask the district directly, or check recent board meeting minutes, for any consolidation, boundary change, or building-utilization discussions tied to the specific school your prospective address feeds into. A district-wide decline doesn't mean every building in that district is equally affected; some schools run near capacity while others in the same district sit well under-enrolled.

If you're selling in one of these districts, don't assume enrollment decline is working against you the way it might elsewhere. Strong districts like Farmington can absorb a decade of enrollment softening without losing buyer demand, since school quality, commute, and price still drive most purchase decisions day to day. Where this data matters more is for long-term investment framing — if a buyer is comparing your home to a similar one in a growing district like Oxford or Clarkston, it's worth being ready to speak candidly about why your district's fundamentals remain strong despite the numbers.

Tom Gilliam RE/MAX Classic: Reading the Data Behind the Market

Understanding a market means understanding what's coming, not just what's happened. I bring 24+ years of Oakland County transaction experience to help buyers and sellers see past the headlines to what actually affects their specific home and street. As the best real estate agent Oakland County Michigan has to offer, and the best realtor Farmington Hills Michigan trusts, I bring that same depth whether you're searching for an entry-level home or luxury homes for sale Farmington Hills Michigan and waterfront homes for sale Oakland County Michigan.

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Has any Oakland County school district actually closed a building?

Not yet, as of this writing. The six districts with the largest enrollment losses — Farmington, Walled Lake, Oak Park, Waterford, Huron Valley, and Southfield — have not announced building closures, though neighboring Detroit Public Schools has.

Which Oakland County school district has lost the most students?

Southfield has seen the steepest decline, down 37.3% over the past decade, according to Michigan CEPI data analyzed by Oakland County Times.

Do school closures actually lower nearby home values?

Research on closures elsewhere has linked them to lower nearby home values, along with community impacts like reduced neighborhood cohesion, since a closed school often leaves a vacant building with no institution to replace its community role.

Why are Oakland County school districts losing enrollment?

The primary driver is declining birth rates leading to fewer school-age children, compounded by incomplete post-pandemic recovery and families shifting to charter, private, or homeschool options.

Which Oakland County districts are growing instead of shrinking?

Oxford, Avondale, Clarkston, and South Lyon all gained enrollment over the past decade, reflecting continued new family growth in the county's outer suburbs.

Should I avoid buying in a district with declining enrollment?

Not necessarily. None of the six Oakland County districts with the largest losses are in crisis, and factors like school quality, commute, and price still matter more day-to-day. It's worth factoring into a long-term hold or resale strategy, not a reason to avoid a district outright.

Recommended Reading

Oakland County Real Estate Guide for Buyers and Sellers · Oakland County Housing Statistics: 2026 Market Snapshot · Oakland County Times: District Enrollment Data · Michigan CEPI: MI School Data · Realtor.com: School Closures and Home Values · Axios: School Closures and Neighborhood Impact