The Realtor.com June 2026 Monthly Housing Trends Report released this week confirmed that national asking prices fell 2.5% year over year in June — the steepest annual decline in their data since 2017 and the eighth consecutive month of price drops. Pending sales rose 3.7% year over year for the seventh straight month. Those two numbers together tell the real story, and most headlines only report the first one.

Falling prices and rising pending sales are not a contradiction. They are the definition of a market rebalancing. Sellers who overpriced their homes during the pandemic frenzy are finally adjusting to what buyers will actually pay. Buyers who sat on the sidelines are coming back because affordability is improving. Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, put it clearly: eight straight months of falling prices and seven straight months of rising pending sales have to be considered together to understand what is actually happening in housing right now. The market is not crashing. It is landing.

But here is the part that almost every national headline buries or omits entirely: the declines are overwhelmingly concentrated in the South and West. According to the Realtor.com June 2026 report, year-over-year median list price declines ranged from negative 4.0% in the West to negative 2.5% in the South and negative 1.0% in the Northeast. The Midwest? Flat. Zero percent change year over year. And when you adjust for home size, price per square foot in the Midwest actually rose 1.5% year over year. The Midwest is the one region in the country where values are not declining — and Oakland County sits squarely in the middle of it.

The longer view is even more revealing. Since the national peak in June 2022, prices are down 7.3% in the West and 3.5% in the South. The Midwest is up 10%. The Northeast is up 12.6%. These are not similar markets experiencing the same correction. They are fundamentally different markets that happened to share a headline during the pandemic boom — and are now diverging sharply as the market normalizes. Oakland County buyers and sellers who are making decisions based on the national average are working from the wrong dataset entirely.

Pro Tip

When you read a national housing headline, the first question to ask is always: which region is driving this number? A national average that includes Austin, Phoenix, and Miami declining sharply will pull the number down significantly even if Detroit, Chicago, and Minneapolis are holding flat or gaining. Always filter national data through your specific market before drawing any conclusions about your home's value or your buying opportunity.

While national headlines focus on declining asking prices in Sun Belt markets, Oakland County is running a completely different script. Farmington Hills homes are averaging $385,085 — up 2.3% year over year. Oakland County's state equalized value rose 5.85% in 2026, which is the county's formal acknowledgment that property values are holding strong. Well-priced homes in Farmington Hills, Novi, Northville, and Rochester are going to pending in six days or fewer. That is not a market in decline. That is a market with active buyers and insufficient inventory in the most desirable price ranges.

The inventory picture tells the same story. Oakland County has seen a modest increase in available homes compared to 2022 and 2023 — which is good news for buyers who were competing in a nearly impossible market two years ago. But the increase in inventory has not meaningfully slowed demand in the county's top communities. Rochester, Northville, Novi, and Birmingham still see well-priced listings attract multiple offers within the first week. The homes that are sitting are either overpriced, in need of significant work, or in locations with lower buyer demand — exactly the pattern you see in any healthy market sorting itself out.

What Oakland County does share with the national market is the rate environment. Mortgage rates have been running in the 6.28%–6.9% range through most of 2026, and that absolutely affects affordability and buyer psychology. According to data from Money.com, nearly 70% of mortgage holders had rates below 5% at the start of 2026, creating the lock-in effect I write about regularly. The difference between Oakland County and the markets where prices are actually falling is that our supply has remained tight enough that buyers who do show up are still competing — not browsing a buyer's market with leverage they do not actually have here.

Oakland County is not immune to everything happening nationally. It is not a sealed bubble. If rates rise sharply, if employment softens, or if inventory floods the market over the next twelve months, the dynamics will shift. But right now, in July 2026, the data does not support the panic that national headlines are generating in some Oakland County homeowners' minds. The numbers here are telling a different story — and that story deserves to be told honestly. I keep a current breakdown of conditions in my Oakland County summer 2026 market update if you want the full current picture.

Pro Tip

The most reliable real-time indicator of your specific Oakland County community's market health is not the national median price — it is the days on market for recently sold homes in your zip code and school district. Pull the last 90 days of closed sales in your neighborhood and look at how long they took to sell. That number tells you more about your specific market than any national report ever will.

The Midwest's relative resilience in 2026 is not an accident and it is not luck. It reflects structural differences between this region and the markets that are correcting most sharply — differences that have been building for years and that are now showing up clearly in the data.

The markets declining most sharply in 2026 — Austin, Phoenix, Miami, and large parts of the California coast — all share a common history. They experienced extreme pandemic-era price appreciation driven by remote work migration, speculative buying, and inventory shortages that have since resolved. Austin saw prices fall 8.3% year over year in June 2026. Memphis was down 5.9%. These are markets where prices got so far ahead of local incomes and local demand that a correction was essentially inevitable once the migration tailwind faded. The Midwest never got that far ahead. Detroit metro prices rose significantly during the pandemic but not at the pace of Sun Belt boom markets — which means the correction pressure here is dramatically lower.

Oakland County specifically benefits from a set of structural demand drivers that are not going away regardless of what happens nationally. Major employers — Ford, GM, Stellantis and their supply chain — continue to anchor Southeast Michigan's employment base. The healthcare corridor along the Woodward Avenue and I-75 corridors remains one of the strongest employment generators in the state. Oakland County's school districts — Farmington Public Schools, Northville Public Schools, Birmingham Public Schools, Rochester Community Schools — continue to draw families from Wayne County and beyond who are willing to pay a premium for addresses in those feeder zones. These are durable demand sources, not speculative ones.

How long can the Midwest outperformance last? Honestly, I do not know — and anyone who tells you they do is guessing. What I can tell you is that the fundamental drivers of Oakland County's demand are structural and employment-based rather than speculative and migration-based, which historically makes for more durable price support. The Federal Reserve's House Price Index for Oakland County confirms a consistent long-term appreciation trend that has not reversed in any previous cycle the way Sun Belt markets have. That history does not guarantee the future, but it is the strongest available evidence about what this market does under pressure.

Pro Tip

If you are a buyer who has been waiting for Oakland County prices to drop based on national headlines, you may be waiting for a correction that does not come here in the same form it is arriving in Phoenix or Austin. The opportunity cost of waiting — continued rent payments, missing the right listing, watching the homes you want sell to buyers who did not wait — is real. Make decisions based on your specific market, not the national average.

For Oakland County sellers, the honest message is this: the national headlines that are scaring buyers in other markets may actually be working in your favor here. Buyers who are paying attention to the national news are reading about falling prices and improving affordability. Some of them are interpreting that as a signal to get off the sidelines and act. Nationally, pending sales rose 3.7% year over year for the seventh consecutive month — the buyers are coming back. And in Oakland County, where supply remains tight, those buyers are arriving into a market that has not given them the leverage the national headlines suggest they should have.

What this means practically is that sellers who price accurately — based on current Oakland County comparable sales, not aspirational numbers from the 2022 peak or fear-driven discounts from the national news — are still in a strong position. The homes that are struggling to sell in 2026 are the ones priced as if the 2022 frenzy never ended. The homes that are selling in six days are the ones priced to reflect today's market honestly. That distinction is where a good Realtor earns their value — not just getting you on the MLS, but pricing your home at the number that generates competition without leaving money on the table.

I have covered the full seller strategy for current conditions in my home selling guide for Farmington Hills and in my recent post on what Oakland County homeowners should be doing with their equity in 2026. Both are worth reading before you make any decisions about timing your sale.

For buyers, the national news is genuinely more encouraging than it has been in a few years — just not for the reasons most headlines suggest. The affordability improvement is real. Rates have pulled back from their 2023 peaks. More inventory exists than did two years ago. Sellers who overpriced are adjusting. Nationally, first-time buyers hit 35% of all purchases in recent data — the highest share since June 2020, according to NAR research — which tells you that real buyers with real budgets are finding ways to make transactions work even in a challenging rate environment.

What Oakland County buyers should not do is arrive at the negotiating table expecting Sun Belt leverage. This market has not softened the way Phoenix or Austin has. Well-priced homes in Farmington Hills, Novi, Northville, and Rochester are still attracting multiple offers. The buyer who shows up without pre-approval, without a clear sense of their priorities, and without a local agent who knows which streets in each community hold the most value will lose homes to buyers who did their preparation. That dynamic has not changed in Oakland County regardless of what the national headlines say.

The buyers who are going to win in Oakland County in the second half of 2026 are the ones who understand exactly which market they are in — not the national average, not the Sun Belt correction story, but the specific Oakland County market with its specific supply, demand, and pricing dynamics. I have built a complete guide to finding the right community and competing effectively in my Oakland County neighborhood guide for 2026. Start there before you start searching.

Pro Tip

If you are a first-time buyer who has been encouraged by national affordability headlines, the most important next step is getting pre-approved for a mortgage before you start seriously searching in Oakland County. The gap between a buyer who arrives pre-approved and one who does not is not a small competitive disadvantage in this market — it is often the difference between getting the home and losing it.

Are home prices dropping in Oakland County Michigan in 2026?

No — Oakland County home prices are holding strong in 2026 despite national headlines reporting record declines. Farmington Hills homes are averaging $385,085, up 2.3% year over year. Oakland County's state equalized value rose 5.85% in 2026. The national price declines are concentrated in the South and West — particularly Austin, Phoenix, and Miami — not in the Midwest, where prices are flat to slightly positive.

Why is the Midwest housing market different from the national trend in 2026?

The markets declining most sharply in 2026 — Austin, Phoenix, and large Sun Belt metros — experienced extreme pandemic-era price appreciation driven by remote work migration that has since faded. The Midwest never saw the same speculative run-up, which means the correction pressure here is dramatically lower. Since the June 2022 national peak, Midwest prices are actually up 10% while national prices are down 4.2%. Structural employment drivers in Southeast Michigan — automotive, healthcare, and technology — provide durable demand that speculative migration markets cannot match.

Is now a good time to sell a home in Oakland County Michigan?

Yes — for sellers who price accurately based on current Oakland County comparable sales. Homes priced correctly for today's market are going pending in six days or fewer in communities like Farmington Hills, Novi, and Northville. The sellers struggling in 2026 are those priced based on 2022 peak expectations. National affordability improvements are actually bringing buyers back to the market — pending sales rose 3.7% year over year nationally for the seventh consecutive month in June 2026. Oakland County sellers who act in the second half of 2026 are in a stronger position than those who wait for a market that may not arrive.

Should Oakland County buyers wait for prices to drop further?

The data does not support waiting for a significant Oakland County price correction in 2026. The price declines making national headlines are happening in Sun Belt markets, not in Southeast Michigan. Buyers waiting for Oakland County to behave like Austin or Phoenix may be waiting for a correction that does not arrive here in the same form. The opportunity cost of waiting — continued rent payments, missing the right listing, competing with buyers who did not wait — is real. Decisions should be based on Oakland County-specific data, not national averages.

What does the national housing market rebalancing mean for first-time buyers in Oakland County?

The national rebalancing has produced genuine affordability improvements — rates have pulled back from 2023 peaks, more inventory exists than two years ago, and sellers are pricing more realistically. First-time buyers nationally hit 35% of all purchases — the highest since June 2020. In Oakland County specifically, the most accessible price points remain in communities like Farmington Hills outer neighborhoods, Holly, Ortonville, and Commerce Township. First-time buyers should arrive pre-approved, understand their specific community's market dynamics, and work with a local expert who knows the school district feeder patterns and subdivision-level value differences that determine long-term equity.

How do I find out what my Oakland County home is actually worth in July 2026?

The only reliable method is a professional Comparative Market Analysis from a local Realtor who has sold homes in your specific neighborhood within the past 90 days. National automated estimates like Zillow's Zestimate use national algorithms that do not account for Oakland County's school district boundaries, lake access premiums, or subdivision-level demand patterns. A professional CMA from Tom Gilliam RE/MAX Classic is provided at no cost and no obligation — call 248-790-5594 or visit Homes2MoveYou.com to get your real number.

About the Author

Tom Gilliam | RE/MAX Classic

Tom Gilliam is a Luxury Estate Marketing Specialist and REALTOR at RE/MAX Classic in Farmington Hills, Michigan with 24 years of experience and 700+ closed transactions across Oakland County. He holds ABR, SRES, PSA, SFR, and RSPS designations and has earned RE/MAX Hall of Fame and Lifetime Achievement recognition. Tom is ranked in the Top 1% of Oakland County agents and serves buyers and sellers across Farmington Hills, Novi, Northville, West Bloomfield, Bloomfield Hills, and surrounding communities.

📍 29630 Orchard Lake Road, Farmington Hills, MI 48334  |  📲 248-790-5594  |  Homes2MoveYou.com