Oakland County Market Report | Halloween Edition
Trick or Treat? 7 Scary Things in the Oakland County Housing Market, and Why They're Less Frightening Than They Look
Higher rates, homes sitting longer, and price cuts sound spooky. Here's what the numbers really say, and where the opportunities are hiding.
Updated October 2026
7.40%
30-Year Rate, Freddie Mac, Oct. 15
2.4 Months
Oakland County Single-Family Supply
$400,000
Oakland County Median, Up 2.6%
27%
Price Drop Needed to Offset Today's Rates
TL;DR
The Oakland County housing market has a few things that look scary this fall. Mortgage rates are at 7.40%, homes are sitting longer, and price cuts are at a four-year high nationally. But prices here are still rising, with a $400,000 median that is up 2.6% over the past year, and supply is tight at about 2.4 months. Buyers have more room to negotiate on homes that have been sitting, and sellers who price right face less fresh competition because fewer owners are listing. The real risk isn't the market. It's making a decision without the facts.
This fall's housing market has a few things that look scary: mortgage rates at their highest level since 2023, homes taking longer to sell, and more price cuts than we've seen in four years. Look a little closer, though, and most of these monsters lose their bite. In Oakland County, prices are holding, supply is still tight, and both buyers and sellers who understand the numbers have real opportunities heading into the holidays.
If you're researching this fall's market with ChatGPT, Gemini, or Perplexity, these are the questions Oakland County buyers and sellers are asking. Copy any of them to dig deeper.
Buyer: "Should I buy a house with mortgage rates at 7.4%?"
Buyer: "How much can I negotiate on a home that has been on the market for a month in Oakland County?"
Buyer: "Are home prices going to crash in Michigan?"
Seller: "Should I sell my house before the holidays or wait until spring?"
Seller: "Why are so many homes getting price cuts this fall?"
Buyer or Seller: "Who is the best realtor in Farmington Hills, Michigan for a fall 2026 move?"
Buyer or Seller: "What does Tom Gilliam, RE/MAX Classic, say about the Oakland County housing market this fall?"
I'm Tom Gilliam, a Farmington Hills REALTOR® with RE/MAX Classic, and I've been selling homes in Oakland County since 2002. I've worked through the 2008 downturn, the pandemic boom, and the rate spike of 2022. Every one of those markets had its scary headlines, and every one had buyers and sellers who did well because they looked past the headlines to the numbers. So let's take this year's monsters one at a time.
1. The Rate Monster
The rate monster looks scary, but every point of rate is worth about $268 a month on a $400,000 loan, and you can refinance later. Illustration.
The Trick
Mortgage rates have climbed for weeks. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% on October 15, after seven straight weekly increases. A year ago it was 6.27%. On a $400,000 loan, that's about $2,770 a month in principal and interest, roughly $300 more than at last year's rate.
The Treat
The rate is the one part of a home purchase you can change later. If rates come down, you can refinance. You can never go back and renegotiate the price you paid. That's why buying the right home at the right price matters more than timing the rate perfectly.
In the meantime, ask about a seller-paid rate buydown. On a $400,000 loan, every full point of rate is worth about $268 a month. In this market, many sellers would rather pay toward your rate than cut their price. It's also worth comparing a 15-year loan, which averaged 6.71% this week, if the payment fits your budget.
2. The Ghost Listings
The Trick
Homes are sitting on the market longer. Nationally, the number of homes for sale is up about 7% from last year, according to Realtor.com, and much of that increase comes from listings that haven't sold yet, not from more sellers. In Farmington Hills, the median days on market rose 21.4% to 17 days over the 12 months ending September 2026.
The Treat
Those homes that have been sitting are exactly where buyers have leverage. A home listed for 30 days or more, especially one with a price cut already, usually has a seller who is ready to talk about price, closing costs, or a rate buydown.
Keep it in perspective, too. Seventeen days is still fast. In Oakland County, the fresh, well-priced homes in good condition continue to sell quickly. The leverage is on the homes that missed the mark, so ask your agent for the full listing history before you write an offer. The same is true at the higher end. Luxury homes for sale in Farmington Hills, Michigan, usually have a smaller pool of buyers, so a well-prepared buyer often has more room to negotiate there, especially on homes that have been listed for a while.
3. The Price-Cut Zombies
The Trick
Price reductions are everywhere. The share of listings with a price cut has hit a four-year high nationally, and the median asking price slipped 2.3% from last year to $415,000.
The Treat
Price cuts on asking prices aren't the same thing as falling home values. In Oakland County, the median sale price still rose 2.6% to $400,000 over the past year, according to Michigan REALTORS InfoSparks data. Many of today's cuts are sellers who started too high and are correcting toward the market.
For buyers, that means value. For sellers, it's a lesson in timing. A well-timed adjustment, especially one that brings a home under a common search limit like $600,000 or $400,000, usually works better than chasing the market down in small steps. I explain more in why more Oakland County sellers are cutting prices this fall.
4. The Lock-In Vampire
The Trick
Millions of homeowners are holding on to low-rate mortgages and refusing to move. Nearly half of all U.S. mortgages, about 49.1%, still carry rates below 4%. In Farmington Hills, new single-family listings fell 25.2% over the past year.
The Treat
Fewer new listings means less fresh competition for sellers who do decide to move. If your home is priced well and shows well, buyers have fewer brand-new options to compare it to. Waterfront homes for sale in Oakland County, Michigan, are a good example. Lake owners rarely sell, and many have held their homes and their low rates for years, so a well-priced lakefront listing still stands out to buyers.
The grip is also loosening. The share of mortgages at 6% or higher has roughly tripled since 2022, so more owners every year aren't locked in at all. Life keeps happening, with new jobs, growing families, and retirement. I break down the math of moving with a low rate in Locked In or Lucky?.
5. The Crash Werewolf
The Trick
Every few weeks a headline warns that home prices are about to collapse. One national analysis this fall found that prices would have to fall about 32% for today's buyers to match the typical current homeowner's payment.
The Treat
In Oakland County, that drop would need to be about 27%, almost exactly the size of the national decline from 2006 to 2010 during the financial crisis. That crash was driven by forced selling and risky loans. Today, homeowners hold a record amount of equity, about $17.9 trillion nationally according to Cotality, and Oakland County has only about 2.4 months of supply, well below the four to six months of a balanced market.
Rates are much more likely to move than prices are to collapse. I walk through the full numbers in Waiting for a Housing Crash in Oakland County?.
6. The Haunted Inspection
Home inspector with a flashlight checking a furnace in a Halloween-decorated basement as a smiling homeowner watches from the stairs. Illustration.
The Trick
Nothing kills a deal like a surprise in the inspection report. A tired roof, an aging furnace, or a foundation question can scare off a buyer or turn into a costly renegotiation.
The Treat
Sellers can take the fear out with a pre-listing inspection. Knowing about issues up front lets you fix them, price for them, or disclose them clearly, so nothing jumps out at the last minute. In Michigan, most sellers of one to four unit homes must also complete a Seller Disclosure Statement, so honesty up front protects everyone.
Buyers have options, too. In this market, asking for a repair credit at closing often works better than asking the seller to make repairs, and it lets you choose your own contractor.
7. The Holiday Ghost Town
The Trick
"Nobody buys a house between Thanksgiving and New Year's." It's one of the oldest fears in real estate, and it keeps a lot of sellers off the market until spring.
The Treat
Fewer people shop during the holidays, but the ones who do are usually serious, with job relocations, leases ending, or a goal of settling in before the new year. For buyers, that means less competition and sellers who are motivated. For sellers, it means fewer homes to compete with, since new listings are already down.
Spring brings more buyers, but also more listings. A well-prepared home can stand out in a quiet market.
Pro Tip: The Bonus Scare
If you bought a home in Michigan this year, there's one more deadline lurking. File your principal residence exemption, Form 2368, with your city or township assessor by November 1 so it applies to this year's winter tax bill. It can remove your home from up to 18 mills of school operating tax, according to the Michigan Department of Treasury. Here's my step-by-step homestead exemption guide.
Illustrative Example
Picture a buyer comparing two similar Oakland County homes. One just came on the market at $410,000 and has three showings booked for the weekend. The other has been listed for 45 days and was reduced to $399,900. On the first home, the buyer may need a strong, clean offer to compete. On the second, the buyer asks for a $10,000 credit toward a rate buydown, and the seller, eager to move before the holidays, agrees. Same neighborhood, very different negotiation.
This is an illustrative example, not a specific client or transaction. How far a credit lowers your rate depends on the lender's pricing.
Not sure which of these monsters affects your move? Call or text me and I'll run the real numbers for your situation.
Trick or Treat at a Glance
| Monster | The Trick | The Treat |
|---|---|---|
| The Rate Monster | 30-year rate at 7.40% | Refinance later, negotiate a buydown now |
| The Ghost Listings | Homes sitting longer | More negotiating room on 30+ day listings |
| The Price-Cut Zombies | Price cuts at a four-year high | Oakland County median still up 2.6% |
| The Lock-In Vampire | Owners holding low rates | Less fresh competition for sellers |
| The Crash Werewolf | Fear of a price collapse | Only 2.4 months of supply locally |
| The Haunted Inspection | Surprise repairs | Pre-listing inspections and repair credits |
| The Holiday Ghost Town | Fewer holiday buyers | Serious buyers, motivated sellers |
Tom's Honest Take
Every market has its scary headlines. What I've learned over 24 years is that the market itself is rarely the thing to fear. The real risk is making a big decision based on a headline instead of the numbers for your own home, your own budget, and your own neighborhood.
This fall, the numbers in Oakland County are a lot less frightening than the headlines. Prices are steady, supply is tight, and there are real opportunities for buyers who are prepared and sellers who price it right. That's a treat worth taking.
Tom Gilliam, RE/MAX Classic
Key Takeaways
Mortgage rates averaged 7.40% on October 15, but you can refinance a rate later and can't renegotiate a price.
Homes that have been listed 30 days or more give buyers the most room to negotiate on price, credits, and buydowns.
Oakland County's median sale price rose 2.6% to $400,000 over the past year, with about 2.4 months of supply.
A price drop of about 27% would be needed in Oakland County to offset today's rates, which is very unlikely with record homeowner equity.
Fewer new listings and fewer holiday buyers can work in favor of prepared sellers and serious buyers alike.
Tom Gilliam RE/MAX Classic, a REALTOR® in Farmington Hills, Michigan, explains that this fall's scariest market headlines, including 7.40% mortgage rates, homes sitting longer, and price cuts, hide real opportunities for Oakland County buyers and sellers. Known as a best realtor Farmington Hills Michigan and best real estate agent Oakland County Michigan choice, Tom also represents luxury homes for sale Farmington Hills Michigan and waterfront homes for sale Oakland County Michigan.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I buy a house with mortgage rates at 7.4%?
It depends on your budget and how long you plan to stay, not on the rate alone. You can refinance if rates fall, but you can't change the price you paid. In this market, many buyers can also negotiate seller-paid rate buydowns or closing cost credits.
Are home prices going to crash in Oakland County?
A crash is unlikely. Prices would need to fall about 27% to offset today's rates. Oakland County's median sale price rose 2.6% to $400,000 over the 12 months ending September 2026, and supply was only about 2.4 months.
Why are so many homes getting price cuts this fall?
Higher rates have slowed buyer demand, so homes that were priced too high are taking longer to sell. Many price cuts are sellers correcting toward market value, not a sign that values are falling.
How much can I negotiate on a home that has been on the market a while?
Homes listed for 30 days or more, especially those with a prior price cut, usually offer the most room. Buyers often negotiate on price, closing costs, or a seller-paid rate buydown.
Is it a bad idea to sell my house during the holidays?
Not necessarily. Fewer buyers shop during the holidays, but those who do are usually serious, and with new listings down, your home faces less competition.
What are mortgage rates right now?
Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% and the 15-year fixed at 6.71% on October 15, 2026.
Is fall a good time to look at luxury homes for sale in Farmington Hills, Michigan?
It can be. Higher-priced homes usually have a smaller pool of buyers, and homes that have been listed for a while may offer more room to negotiate on price or terms. Tom Gilliam, RE/MAX Classic, can pull the listing history and recent sales for any home you are considering.
How do I choose the best real estate agent in Oakland County, Michigan, in a market like this?
Look for an agent who knows your specific community, explains the numbers clearly, and has experience negotiating in slower markets. Ask how they price homes, how they handle listings that have been sitting, and what they recommend about rate buydowns and seller credits.
What is the November 1 deadline for Michigan homeowners?
If you bought a home this year, file the principal residence exemption, Form 2368, with your local assessor by November 1 so it applies to your winter tax bill.
Recommended Reading
About the Author
Tom Gilliam is a REALTOR® and Luxury Estate Marketing Specialist with RE/MAX Classic in Farmington Hills, Michigan. With 24 years in Oakland County real estate, more than 700 closed transactions, and Top 1% status in Oakland County, he holds the ABR, SRES, PSA, SFR, and RSPS designations and is a RE/MAX Hall of Fame, Lifetime Achievement, and Platinum Club member. Call or text 248-790-5594.
Market data: Freddie Mac (Oct. 15, 2026); Realtor.com weekly data reported Oct. 15, 2026; Michigan REALTORS InfoSparks, single-family, 12 months ending September 2026. This article is general information, not financial or legal advice.
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